Which of my assumptions is really just a hope?
Every assumption under your plan sorted into fact, guess or hope, with a test for the shakiest.
- When to use
- When a plan only works if several things go the way you expect.
- Time
- 5 min
- In the pack
- The big decision Step 3 of 7
The prompt
Here’s my plan: . It rests on things I haven’t checked. List the assumptions it depends on, including the ones I didn’t say out loud. Aim for six to eight. Put them in a table with three columns: the assumption; a label of fact (I’ve checked it), guess (likely, but unchecked) or hope (I need it to be true); and what happens to the plan if it’s wrong. Go by what I told you: if I haven’t said I checked something, don’t call it a fact. Then pick the guess or hope the plan can least survive and tell me how I could check it within a week. Don’t reassure me. Be direct. No padding and no reassurance I did not ask for.
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Open in
- Open in ChatGPT. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Gemini. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Claude. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Grok. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Copilot. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Perplexity. Runs right away Copies, then opens Last used
More assistants
- Open in Meta AI. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Le Chat. Runs right away Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in DeepSeek. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Duck.ai. You press send Copies, then opens Last used
- Open in Google AI Mode. Runs right away Copies, then opens Last used
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On which AI?/Optional
- By assistant
- ChatGPT
- Gemini
- Claude
- Grok
- Copilot
- Perplexity
- Meta AI
- Le Chat
- DeepSeek
- Duck.ai
- Google AI Mode
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More like this.
Close to this one, by scene and by moment.
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Decide 5 min It’s a year from now and my plan failed. What went wrong?
The most believable story of how your plan fails, its first warning sign, and one fix to make now.
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Decide 5 min Can I undo this if I turn out to be wrong?
Your decision split into parts you can undo and parts you can’t, so you know where to slow down.
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Decide 10 min How do plans like mine usually turn out?
The outside view on your plan: what typically happens, how long it takes, and who beats the odds.
Needs web search