How do plans like mine usually turn out?

The outside view on your plan: what typically happens, how long it takes, and who beats the odds.


When to use
When your plan feels unique and you’ve only pictured it going well.
Time
10 min
Needs
Needs web search Turn on search so it can look things up.
In the pack
Career crossroads

The prompt

I’m planning to . Before we look at my own case, give me the outside view. First, name the group of people who’ve tried something similar that makes the fairest comparison for me. Then show how it typically goes for that group in a short table: how many succeed, how long it takes, what it costs, and the most common reason it falls short. Use real figures where they exist, each with a source I can open, and search for them if you can. Don’t invent a figure or a source: where there are no good numbers, say so and give a labeled estimate. Finish with the two things that separate the people it works out for, and ask me whether they apply to me.

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